The ISIS threat against South Africa: preliminary questions, considerations and the potential for a regional responsePosted: 9 September, 2020 Filed under: Marko Svicevic | Tags: 40th ordinary summit, Ansar al-Sunna, Cabo Delgado, Dr Naledi Pandor, Dyck Advisory Group, insurgency, ISIS, military assistance, Mocimboa de Praia, Mozambique, propaganda, Protocol on the SADC Tribunal, South Africa, threat, UN Security Council Committee, Wagner Group 1 Comment
Author: Marko Svicevic
Post-doctoral research fellow, South African Research Chair in International Law (SARCIL), University of Johannesburg
The recent threat issued against South Africa by the ISIS-affiliated insurgency in Mozambique has once again signaled a growing reality facing the country – an ever-increasing terrorist presence in the SADC region. While the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province has been around for several years, it is the first time that South Africa has been the target of an open threat. Not unexpectedly, a number of questions have arisen. This post serves to highlight some preliminary questions and considerations relating to the insurgency in Mozambique and the potential threat to South Africa. These include among others: links the current insurgency holds with ISIS, the credibility of the threat issued against South Africa, probability and capacity for the insurgency (or ISIS) to follow through with the threat, and the potential for a regional response.