What is next after the graduation of the necessary unified forces?
Posted: 20 September, 2022 Filed under: Garang Yach James | Tags: Agreement on Permanent Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements, Civil Defence, complex geopolitics, Equatoria region, lack of political will, national army, National Police Service, national security, political will, Prison Services, RACRSS, Republic of South Sudan, Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflicts in South Sudan, security implications, South Sudan People’s Defence Forces, SPLA-IO, Transitional Security Arrangement, unified forces, Wildlife Leave a comment
Author: Garang Yach J
South Sudanese Political and security analyst and PhD Student, University of Juba, South Sudan
Summary
The article attempts to answer the question of what is next after the parties have finally graduated the long-awaited necessary unified forces in accordance with the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflicts in South Sudan (RACRSS). It identifies four key issues and their respective security implications at the center of the transitional security arrangements. The author concludes that the graduation of the necessary unified forces is not the surest guarantee of a stabilised security situation although it is a show of political will that has been lacking since the coming to effect of the RARCSS in 2018. Addressing the identified key dilemmas will in turn address their respective security implications thus tranquilise the problematic security situation across the country.
The author ends by giving three pertinent recommendations for policy action if the transitional security arrangements were to set a stage for a democratic South Sudan by the end of the 24-month extended period.
The decline of democracy and the rise of coup d’états in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reflections and lessons
Posted: 25 February, 2022 Filed under: Garang Yach James | Tags: civil unrest, civil uprisings, coup d'états, gun class, human insecurities, human security, Independent Electoral Commission, militarisation of politics, military takeover, political fiasco, Republic of South Sudan, South Sudan military, stable democracies, structural inequalities Leave a commentAuthor: Garang Yach J
South Sudanese Political and security analyst and PhD Student, University of Juba, South Sudan
Summary
Although coup d’états have been straddling the African continent since the 1960s, their recent resurfacing and rise is a reverse to the democratic consolidation in the Sub-Saharan African region. In this article I try to locate the trends of coups in the history of the region in order to showcase the existing susceptibility of the states in the region. I further advance the argument that militarisation of politics, the dominant military aristocracy and proclivity to change constitutions in order to extend term and age limits, delays in holding free and fair elections are among the reasons why democracy is declining, and coups are on rise in the region. I also present a compelling argument that failure to incorporate human security into governance is stifling democracy and resuscitation of coup tendencies. The article concludes that military metiers in the Sub-Saharan region have entrenched themselves and apply mock democracy to actuate militaristic propensity. Finally, the article gives four recommendations that would improve democratic governance and mitigate trends of unconstitutional change of government in the region.
Will South Sudan be ready for its first democratic elections comes 2023?
Posted: 14 January, 2022 Filed under: Garang Yach James | Tags: 2023, civil wars, communal conflicts, democratic elections, national elections, Permanent Ceasefire, Permanent Constitution, R-ARCSS, refugees, Repatriation of refugees, Republic of South Sudan, Security Sector Reform, social disorder, Transitional Period, Transitional security arrangements 6 CommentsAuthor: Garang Yach James
South Sudanese Political and security analyst and PhD Student, University of Juba, South Sudan
Summary
This article discusses key requisite benchmarks for the success of first democratic elections towards the end of the Transitional Period in 2023. The author argues that the conduct of credible democratic elections is conditional on certain processes being successfully completed. The article posits that in lieu of faithful implementation of these processes, the conduct of first national elections in South Sudan is likely to birth mock democracy and would be a recipe for recycling of conflict. The article finally gives three recommendations as a path out of the series of transitional governments.
Requisite benchmarks for democratic elections in South Sudan
Since independence, South Sudan has never conducted general elections in its capacity as a sovereign State. Instead, the country has experienced multiple communal conflicts and civil wars which threatened prospects for democratic elections. In attempts to establish peace and security, the two agreements namely; ARCSS and R-ARCSS expected to transition the post-conflict state to democracy have been signed but none of the said agreements has transitioned the state to secure and peaceful South Sudan. To do this, the Revitalised Transitional Government of Nation Unity( RTGoNU) stands a chance of leading a successful transition provided that the following necessary benchmarks are achieved.
Did the recently concluded South Sudan’s fifth Governors’ forum address the elephants in the room?
Posted: 6 December, 2021 Filed under: Garang Yach James, Joseph Geng Akech | Tags: Administrative Areas, ‘Permanent’ constitution building, Chief Administrators, democratic governance, economic reforms, governance, Governors’ Forum, Humanitarian relief, internally displaced people, law reforms, peace, R-ARCSS, refugees, Republic of South Sudan, Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity, RTGoNU, social services, sustainable peace, Transitional justice mechanisms, Transitional security arrangements, UNDP, United Nations Development Programme 1 Comment
Author: Joseph Geng Akech
South Sudanese human rights lawyer and PhD candidate, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Author: Garang Yach James
South Sudanese Political and security analyst and PhD Student, University of Juba, South Sudan
Summary
The government of the Republic of South Sudan recently organised a week-long conference of its 10 State Governors and Chief Administrators representing the three Administrative Areas. The aim was to discuss the role of States and local governments in the implementation of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). After a week of intense deliberations, the Forum released resolutions and recommendations on various aspects of peace, governance, social services and economic reforms. This paper critiques the Forum’s outcome arguing that the Forum failed to address the ‘elephants in the room’. For instance, the resolutions and recommendations did not articulate and in some instances, failed to mention, as priorities, aspects of the transitional security arrangements, transitional justice, permanent constitution building, humanitarian assistance and the return of internally displaced people and refugees as well as institutional and law reforms.
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