The election of Mahamat Idriss Déby: What are the security issues for Chad and beyond?

Author: Joris Joël Fomba Tala

Researcher, Centre for International and Community Law

On 23 May 2024, Mahamat Idriss Déby was sworn in as the new President of Chad.  On 16 May 2024, the Constitutional council officially declared Mahamat Idriss Déby the winner of the presidential election. According to results, Deby won 61 per cent of the votes cast, compared with 18.53 per cent for his main rival Succès Masra. This election brings to an end three years of political transition in the country led by the president-elect. According to some sources, the presidential election in Chad was marred by irregularities and was neither free, credible nor democratic, in a context marked by human rights violations. It is important to remember that the junta had excluded General Déby’s most dangerous opponents from the ballot, in particular his cousin and fierce rival Yaya Dillo, who was assassinated two months before the election.  After the proclamation of the results, a few shots were fired by soldiers in the district housing the headquarters of the Succès Masra Les Transformeurs party, forcing people to take refuge in their homes. It has been reported that around twenty people died from gunshot wounds and 60 others were admitted to hospital.

This follows Succès Masra’s claim to victory in the presidential election a few hours before the provisional results were announced. After the Constitutional Council rejected his appeal following the announcement of the official results, Masra announced his resignation and that of his government, calling on his supporters to continue the political struggle peacefully. This move by the man who has always been regarded as a fierce opponent of the Déby dynasty represents a significant step forward in the pacification of the Chadian political environment. Indeed, a street protest by supporters of the former prime minister could lead to deadly violence in a country marked since its independence in 1960 by coups d’état, authoritarian regimes and regular assaults by a multitude of rebellions. In this post, we will analyse the challenges and obstacles of Déby’s term as President of the Republic of Chad, and propose ways of ensuring stability not only for Chad but also for the Sahel region.  

The challenges and obstacles of Déby’s term as President of Chad

Mahamat Idriss Déby will face a number of internal and regional challenges. Since the Transitional Military Council took power in April 2021, the main preoccupation of its supporters seems to be the retention of power rather than genuine reconciliation between Chadians. The distribution of power remains personal, based in part on family clan ties, and has led to an increase in the number of areas of contestation and conflict. Chad’s institutions seem to be caught in a vice between the political party currently in power and the tribal support network surrounding the transitional President Mahamat Idriss Déby. The majority of citizens do not recognise themselves in the process that led to the inclusive and sovereign national dialogue, not to mention what happened afterwards. For many, the dialogue was a fiasco in which the ruling party manoeuvred to consolidate its hold and suppress participants’ freedom of expression.

At regional level, the situation in Chad is a cause for concern. The outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023 led to an influx of refugees fleeing the fighting. In the north of the country, political instability in Libya has spread across the desert border. In the Sahel, violent extremism continues to threaten regional security where terrorist groups such as Boko Haram continue to carry out criminal acts.  As mentioned above, the war in Sudan is a factor of instability for Chad. An estimated 600,000 refugees from Darfur continue to cross the border and settle in the economically fragile Ouaddai region. Chad is now the nerve centre in the fight against jihadism in the Sahel. It has played a significant role in the fight against armed groups. The porous borders with Libya in the north have given rise to illegal smuggling and human trafficking. As for the Central African Republic, destabilising Chad would have an immediate effect on the country’s stability. The result would be a radicalisation of politico-armed groups. Déby’s presidency could therefore play an important role in the security of the Sahel region.

Opening doors to lasting stability in Chad and the Sahel       

Internally, to avoid major instability and insecurity in Chad, President Déby should organise legislative and municipal elections as soon as possible to enable Chadians to freely choose their representatives. This could reduce tensions within the Chadian political class. He should consolidate the gains made by pursuing an inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders in Chad’s socio-political and military environment. In concrete terms, this will mean continuing the dialogue with opposition groups, releasing political prisoners and reforming the army to better reflect the country’s ethnic diversity. It will be important for the leaders to continue the talks so that reluctant ex-combatants join the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration process, which is already a remarkable success. President Déby will have to fight against social inequalities, and this means promoting national unity.  In terms of cooperation, Déby would do well to strengthen their cooperation with foreign powers, particularly the United States.

American interests rest on two pillars, namely the promotion of American culture and the fight against terrorism, both of which involve the regular supply of equipment and training to Chad’s defence and security forces. Beyond all these contributions, it has to be said that the United States’ involvement in Chad’s domestic politics is still considered timid. Consequently, stronger US support for good governance, democracy, freedom of expression and sanctions against those who undermine the rule of law in Chad is desirable. In addition, it is important for the partners to support President Déby in a process that is transparent and inclusive of the Chadian people. In particular, they must encourage him to widen the political space for genuine peace. All this is likely to annihilate violent extremism in Chad. 

President Déby will have to find a way of reducing tensions in order to avoid a further escalation of internal violence along tribal and ethnic lines. Even if this is a difficult task, it could lead members of certain factions to seek alliances with armed Arab groups such as Zaghawa in Sudan and put pressure on the President Déby. It is therefore crucial for Déby to work towards a resolution of the conflict in Sudan in order to prevent the migration of violent extremist groups to his territory.    

Untimely, the election of President Déby in Chad is crucial to the stability of the country and the Sahel region. The most important aspect of these elections is the willingness of President Déby to continue the transition to an inclusive and democratic system in order to combat violent extremism. Exogenous factors, particularly those linked to the war in Sudan, could influence Chadian politics.  

About the Author:

Joris Joël Fomba Tala holds a PhD in public international law from the University of Douala in Cameroon. As a former fellow at the winter courses of The Hague Academy of International Law, he is interested in issues relating to international humanitarian law, international criminal law, the law of the use of force, international responsibility, human rights and international terrorism. He is also a former postdoctoral fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Comparative and International Law in Heidelberg, Germany. He is currently a researcher at the Centre for International and Community Law at the University of Yaounde 2 in Cameroon.